By Tim Petrey

I started out in business during and shortly after the financial crisis in 2009. Back then, we helped people rebuild. We saw retirement accounts decimated, people losing their savings – and we built a business around supporting folks through what was, at the time, our first taste of truly “unprecedented times.”

A decade later, we faced another black swan event: the global pandemic. It sent shock waves through global, national and local economies. Still, we stayed the course.

And here we are again. In 2025, we’re up against a new set of global macroeconomic challenges: interest rate whiplash, inflation, supply chain instability, AI disruption – you name it. The kind of market conditions we’re facing today are forcing all of us to solve problems in ways we never had to before.

The End of ‘Copy-Paste’ Business Models

There was a time when you could find a business model that worked, plug it in and run it on repeat. For decades, that kind of stability helped businesses flourish. You could forecast reliably, grow steadily and rarely get thrown a real curveball.

But those days are gone.

Now, it feels like we’re playing in a whole different ball game. Curveballs are coming fast and often. And if you’re a newer business owner, you’ve had to learn on the fly – adjusting, pivoting and recalibrating with every new challenge. Those who can adapt in this kind of environment are the ones who will thrive over the next decade.

Born in the Fire

I’m proud to say that I’m part of this new breed of business owner – one forged in times of uncertainty. The financial crisis of 2008, the global pandemic of 2020 and now the economic shifts of 2025 have all been defining chapters in our journey. And while each crisis brought pain and disruption, they also created opportunities for those willing to lean into the change rather than fear it.

Fear, by the way, is the No. 1 driver of bad decisions in business. Emotional, reactive decisions made under pressure tend to lead us in the wrong direction. That’s why I live by the phrase “Never let a good crisis go to waste.”

Crisis reveals character. It’s easy to say you’re great at your job when the wind’s at your back. It’s when the storm hits that your customers really get to see what you’re made of – and they remember who stood strong and delivered when things got tough.

What Does It Mean to Expand ‘Calibrated’?

Let’s talk about growth. It’s OK to want to grow – even aggressively – during times like this. But that growth needs to be calibrated.

You might be asking, “What the heck does that mean?”

Simply put, it means growing with a plan – making sure you’ve got the data, insights and timing right so you’re making smart decisions instead of gut calls. The more you can lean on real numbers, trends and patterns, the less you’re gambling with your future.

We’ve spent the past five years working closely with clients to help them get their arms around their data. Sometimes it’s as basic as getting your financials done faster. But it goes deeper too.

Questions Every Business Owner Should Be Asking Right Now

Before you move forward, take a step back and think about:

  • Who is your ideal client right now, and how are their needs or buying habits changing?
  • What’s most important to your workforce, and how do you keep them engaged?
  • How will AI impact your industry, and what should you be automating already?
  • How can you regain control of your supply chain?
  • How do you insulate your business from inflation, interest rates and geopolitical instability?
  • What does the future of your business look like in five years?

Once you start answering these questions, you’re ready to build a real plan – one rooted in quantifiable success metrics so you’ll know when things are working and, just as importantly, when they’re not.

The Bottom Line

The days of making business decisions based on gut feelings alone are behind us. It’s more important than ever to plan, measure, adjust and stay focused, especially in unpredictable markets like these.

Success in today’s environment doesn’t come from reacting emotionally. It comes from taking a clear-headed, data-backed and risk-aware approach to growth.

These are unprecedented times, but you’re not powerless. In fact, this might be the greatest opportunity in your business’s history to grow smarter, lead stronger and come out ahead.

Tim Petrey is the CEO of HD Growth Partners. This column was previously published as sponsored content in The Business Journal’s Small Business Resources Guide.