POLAND, Ohio — Despite four major shocks in the past six years, the U.S. economy remains resilient, according to Olu Omodunbi, chief economist with Huntington Private Bank.
Omodunbi gave an economic outlook and market overview during a Huntington Bank luncheon at The Lake Club in Poland before banking leaders and representatives from businesses and organizations across the area.
Starting with the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, followed by the war in Ukraine, tariff pressures and now the U.S.-Iran conflict, the economy has faced major hurdles, yet growth continues, Omodunbi said.
Although gross domestic product growth is usually led by consumer spending, Omodunbi said first-quarter 2026 growth also was buoyed by business investment, including AI technology, space and big tech.
While spending is facing pressure from high gas prices and other uncertainty, Omodunbi said consumers also benefited from larger tax refunds. He listed other wild cards affecting the economy — factors most people have no control over — including geopolitical conflicts, trade policy uncertainty, AI disruption and cybersecurity threats.
Additionally, economists are concerned about a possible cooling labor market, pressure on bond yields, Federal Reserve policy and resurging inflation, he said. However, regarding the naming of new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, Omodunbi said it is important to remember policy is made by a committee of 19 people, not one leader.
“Despite the very uncertain environment, the U.S. economy was more resilient,” Omodunbi said. “Growth in the first quarter of this year was 2%.”
Omodunbi said growth was 2.8% last year, and he expects it to continue at about 2.5% this year, with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act helping incentivize spending. However, he cautioned that if energy prices continue to spike, consumer spending could pull back.
Business spending continues to rise, but mostly in AI equipment, AI structures and AI intellectual property.
Inflation
Omodunbi said inflation, which had been slowing significantly, showed a reacceleration from 3.3% in March to 3.8% in April. That could lead the Federal Reserve to avoid cutting interest rates anytime soon, he said.
“We think that the FED will be assessing the Middle East crisis to see how it affects consumers, prices, the labor market, the broader U.S. economy,” Omodunbi said. “The great news about inflation is that we’re not seeing inflation bleed through other parts of the U.S. economy.”
But as the Middle East situation continues, he cautioned that high energy prices could begin spreading to other sectors such as industry, manufacturing, construction, transportation, warehousing and agriculture.
Long term, Omodunbi said consumers believe inflation will remain steady at around 3.3%, and crude oil futures are much lower than the current price.
Labor
Late last year, concerns grew as the U.S. labor market saw a slight increase in unemployment rates, Omodunbi said, but as of May 2026, that is no longer the case. He called it a new balance in the labor market, where it is unnecessary to create as many jobs as before to keep unemployment rates unchanged.
Locally, however, Omodunbi noted employment numbers in Youngstown have not returned to prepandemic levels.
“I love Youngstown,” Omodunbi said. “It’s a great city, very affordable, low cost of living and many advantages.”
While national employment rates have recovered sharply to about 4% above pre-Covid levels, Ohio is only 1% above those levels, and the local area remains below them. Additionally, the local economy is stymied by low population growth and a higher death rate than birth rate. However, net migration, both domestic and international, to the region has been positive.
Sam Huston, Huntington’s market president for the Mahoning Valley region, spoke directly to those in the room, which included many business leaders and community organizations from the Mahoning and Shenango valleys. He noted Huntington joins them in the dedication many have shown to growing and strengthening businesses in the region.
“Last year, we have seen significant investments in innovation, workforce development, job creation and overall economic development in general,” Huston said. “There has been a profound impact on our region and I want to thank everybody in this room for your contributions. Our region has much to be proud of and the work of many organizations.”
He specifically mentioned examples such as additive manufacturing innovation by the Youngstown Business Incubator and America Makes, the addition of the Innovation Hub for Aerospace and Defense, as well as new manufacturers entering the region, including Kimberly-Clark. While Huston said there are too many examples to highlight them all, the organizations and businesses in the room have helped drive positive change in the Mahoning Valley.
Huston said Huntington remains committed to helping clients navigate challenges, remain resilient and capitalize on new opportunities.
“Whether we serve your business needs or we manage your personal wealth, you can depend on us for insights and advice,” Huston said, encouraging attendees to meet with Huntington’s expert team following Omodunbi’s presentation.
“I want to thank you for your business and placing your trust in us,” Huston said.
Pictured at top: Olu Omodunbi, chief economist with Huntington Private Bank and Sam Huston, market president for the Mahoning Valley Region.