YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio – Agricultural interests across the Mahoning Valley and Ohio are wrought with confusion and uncertainty in the face of a volatile trade climate that could place pressures on family farms struggling to stay afloat. Moreover, specialists say, trade tensions in the long term could damage an export market worth billions of dollars.

The Trump administration’s decision to enact 20% tariffs on Chinese products has elicited a predicable response from that country, with China imposing tariffs of 15% and 10% on certain agricultural goods shipped from the U.S.

Meanwhile, the administration has placed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum – as well as other products – on Canada and Mexico but has exempted goods that are part of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, the successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement. The administration is contemplating another 25% in retaliatory tariffs on both countries – albeit signaling some “flexibility” – that could take effect April 2.

Caught in the middle are local soybean and corn farmers, who rely on healthy demand from these countries to ship the products they grow.

Farm to Foreign Tables

“We do depend a lot on exports,” says Mary Smallsreed, whose husband’s family has owned farmland in Braceville Township for five generations. Her brother-in-law farms most of the land today – a large percentage of which is soybeans and corn.

Smallsreed, a former president of the Trumbull County Farm Bureau, says that margins are already desperately thin for farmers in the region. Closing off export markets because of retaliatory tariffs from other countries such as China, she says, would drive commodity prices down, making it even more difficult for farms to stay in business.  At present, China has imposed a 10% tariff on soybeans and a 15% duty on corn exported from the United States.

“It’s just as critical for a fair agreement with Canada and Mexico, too,” Smallsreed says. “We operate on slim margins. We buy retail and sell wholesale.”

Members of her extended family in Braceville and in Geauga County mostly farm wheat, corn, soybeans and hay. The hay is sold to the regional market, while a sizeable portion of the other products are bound for export markets.

“Anybody who grows those is going to be affected,” she says.

Farmers, she continues, are squeezed between lower product prices and higher costs for fertilizers, machinery, interest rates and land. Onerous regulations also add to expenses. Today, the industry is more adept with technology and equipment that, for example, can distribute fertilizers more efficiently. Yet much of the components used in the process come from foreign manufacturers, which could also be shut off should a trade war persist.

“With a trade war going on, are we going be able to get the fertilizer components we need to grow our crops?” she asks rhetorically.

While tariffs might deliver short-term pain, Smallsreed says that it’s also vital to strengthen U.S. manufacturing and attract new investment domestically.  “It’s a painful process – growing pains in the U.S. – because we have to get back to keeping our own natural resources and building our own products here.”

Soybeans are Ohio’s largest farm export, the vast majority of which are consumed by China. Mexico is the second-largest market for soy, and agricultural organizations are carefully monitoring the trade situation between that country and the U.S.  At press time, neither Mexico nor Canada had placed tariffs on agricultural products shipped from the U.S. But that could change should the Trump administration move to enact a new slate of tariffs.

“Mexico is a very significant market that we’ve worked really hard to build over the years,” says Kirk Merritt, executive director of the Ohio Soybean Association and Ohio Soybean Council. “We really would like to keep our Mexico market strong. We’re monitoring it closely.”

In 2024, Ohio farmers produced approximately 260 million bushels of soybeans, nearing $3 billion in total sales directly to farmers, Merritt says. Half of that revenue comes from export markets, he says.

Ohio also benefits from $8 billion in indirect economic activity related to the soybean market. “That’s total overall impact just in Ohio – a lot of jobs,” he says. “Export markets are a big deal. It’s an important source of revenue for our family farms.”

Other policy changes from the White House are also likely to impact the industry, Merritt says, especially recent cuts to United States Agency for International Development food programs. “It was not a significant percentage of our crop, but we’re in a situation now where all demand is good demand,” he says.

Tariffs Redux

Local growers have felt the pinch of tariff policy before, Merritt notes.

In 2018, the first Trump administration imposed tariffs specifically directed at China. China retaliated with an approximately 25% duty on U.S. soybean imports. Prices plunged, as did export volumes, he says.

The trade impasse continued into 2019. In the meantime, soybean farmers in the state lost market share, as China pivoted to other international sources for the crop, Merritt says. Yet Ohio farmers also made efforts to diversify their markets, making connections with countries that embrace soy-heavy diets, such as Vietnam, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan and Egypt.

“We’re making progress,” he says. “But it takes time. It took us decades to build the Chinese market.”

Also, during the last trade fight, the Trump administration shepherded a $28 billion economic relief package through Congress to help offset losses to farmers caused by the tariffs.

“There’s no guarantee that type of financial support would be available this time,” he says. “We would hope it would be if it did get to the point where we’re seeing those kind of revenue reductions.”

Other Products Affected

China has also placed retaliatory duties of 15% on U.S.-produced cotton, chicken, wheat and corn. “For Ohio it will mostly impact wheat and corn,” says Professor Ian Sheldon, Andersons Chair in agricultural, trade and marketing at the Ohio State University. The first round of tariffs in 2018 through 2019 led to China sourcing most of its corn from Brazil, as well as securing a hefty soybean supply from that country.

“Additional tariffs, particularly to corn and soybeans, are just going to exacerbate the fact that we’re losing market share to Brazil,” he says. “It’s intensifying the loss of market share for U.S. farmers.”

Sheldon says it’s difficult to gauge just where the administration is headed with its trade policy, especially regarding Canada and Mexico. As it stands now, the United States has imposed a 10% import duty on potash from Canada, a vital ingredient in fertilizers.

The United States imports 90% of its potash and Canada is by far the largest supplier.

“Canada supplies approximately 80% of potash imports to the United States,” he says.

Other tariffs on crude oil imports from Canada, as well as the Trump administration’s across-the-board tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from both Canada and Mexico, could also impact the bottom line for agriculture, he says.

“In the last two years, American farmers have suffered a squeeze on their margins,” Sheldon says. This new round of tariffs, he adds, would only serve to raise operational and equipment costs for those growers already dealing with the loss of overseas market share and reduced commodity prices.

“Everything is incredibly uncertain right now,” Sheldon says. Canada and Mexico have so far paused any major retaliatory strikes, which has left some space for trade negotiations toward a settlement.

The United States has also backed off some of its initial saber rattling and has thus far limited its tariff penalties with Canada and Mexico.

“The St. Louis Fed [Federal Reserve] has a trade uncertainty index that they first calculated in the 1960s,” Sheldon says. “Right now, it’s the highest it’s ever been.”

Local Reactions

Amid this trade turmoil, farmers are preparing for the planting season, says Ralph Wince, grain merchandiser for Heritage Cooperative, which has locations in Canfield, East Liverpool, Columbiana and other sites across Ohio.

Wince says his job is to purchase grain from regional farms – soybeans and corn, for example – and send it via barge along the Ohio River, to the Mississippi River, and then to New Orleans. There, the shipment is transferred to an ocean-going vessel and sold in the global market.

Regardless of tariffs, the United States would still lose soybean market share during this time of year, since the growing season is just underway, and the harvest won’t set in until October. 

Meanwhile, Brazil is now harvesting its crop and already sending it to markets such as China.

“China only comes to the U.S. because it has to,” he says, noting that once Brazil’s harvest is exhausted, the country shifts its attention to American suppliers.

Moreover, the stronger dollar has allowed soybeans grown in South America to be sold at lower prices, placing local farmers at a disadvantage, Wince says.

However, the approximately six-month period between planting and harvesting allows some time for negotiators to settle any outstanding trade issues, Wince says. 

“We’ve got a little time to see how it’s going to play out,” he says. “If tariffs are in effect by the time we get to October, it could have an impact.”

Much of that also depends on the volumes of soybean product that, for example, China can secure from Brazil during their harvest season, Wince says. Sensing a drop in imported soybeans from the U.S., China could very well step up its demand in the Brazilian market to provide surplus into the fall, lessening the demand for U.S. beans, he says.

“The bottom line is, if there’s a need, they’re going to buy, tariffs or not,” Wince says.

Despite the uncertainty, trade specialists such as the Ohio Soybean Association’s Merritt are still hopeful mutually beneficial trade agreements can be reached.

“We’d prefer a situation where it’s negotiated quickly, and farmers wouldn’t face revenue reductions like last time,” he says.  “That’s the best case.”

Merritt says he would also encourage the administration to expand federal programs designed to help farmers sell their crops on the global market. These programs, now 25 years old, have benefitted many farmers who have tried to diversify and build export markets beyond China.

“Our farmers are very productive – they can meet all our domestic needs for food and crops and still feed the rest of the world,” he says. “We’d like to keep that success story going.”

Pictured at top: Mary Smallsreed’s family farm in Braceville Township produces soybeans and corn.