By Dani Robbins
CEO, Lake to River Economic Development
The Lake to River region – Ashtabula, Columbiana, Mahoning and Trumbull counties – continues to demonstrate fundamental stability and forward momentum.
Despite global headwinds, our residential construction is expanding and our robust pipeline of advanced manufacturing, logistics, speculative development and downtown redevelopment projects continues to validate our region’s distinct competitive edge.
A look at the data driving our regional economy this quarter highlights the practical realities beneath the surface and how Lake to River is working to translate these metrics into growth for regional businesses.
Employment across the region stood at 267,600 in May 2026. While this represents a slight dip of 1,100 jobs (0.4%) year-over-year, a rebound in June is anticipated as seasonal roles are filled.
A historically wet spring, compounded by the uncertainty stemming from the conflict in Iran that began in March, has naturally introduced hesitation into hiring plans. Elevated fuel prices are driving up the cost of goods, for both businesses and consumers, and inducing caution.
Unemployment rates improved dramatically to 3.7% in May, down from 5.2% a year ago. Ashtabula and Columbiana counties currently boast rates lower than both the state and national averages, while the cities of Youngstown and Warren sit at 5.3% and 5.9%, respectively.
Traditionally, the region has a higher unemployment rate than the state and national averages. This specific data point, while seemingly low, is a bit misleading. When taken in context with the Labor Force Participation rate below, it tells a different story and shows that fewer people are seeking work.
Labor force participation rates in the Lake to River region at 56.7% trails Ohio at 62.0% and the nation at 61.8%. A declining participation rate can make unemployment figures look better than they are. When workers stop actively seeking employment, whether due to early retirement, disability, caregiving responsibilities, or discouragement, they fall out of the unemployment calculation. For businesses trying to assess future labor supply, these participation trends are just as critical as unemployment rates.
The Lake to River region has available, latent workforce capacity; the practical challenge is connection and matching. Initiatives on targeted training, accessible transportation, reliable childcare, and clear credentialing pathways are focused on connecting workers to employers that are ready to grow.
This is why Lake to River’s wage and benefit surveys, talent partnerships, and direct employer outreach remain core economic development tools for our region to help find, train, and retain the needed talent.
Covered Employment by Job Sector data reflects Q3-2025 covered employment just prior to the federal government shutdown and lags current conditions by six months. Overall, jobs dropped by 0.8% year-over-year.
Losses in Construction-related employment were offset by growth in trade, transportation and utilities sectors while manufacturing and educational services held steady, but while all other sectors dropped, ending with a loss of about 1,628 jobs.
Growth is anticipated in the manufacturing sector as it is not just a legacy strength. Kimberly-Clark’s $800 million advanced manufacturing facility investment in Trumbull County shows how prepared sites, workforce coordination, and logistics advantages can turn into generational wins for our region.
Housing has continued to improve in all counties in the last two months. New residential permits rose to 54 in May, up nearly 32 percent from a year earlier.
Permit valuation reached $16.1 million, up from $11.6 million last year. All counties have steadily increased in both permits and valuations over the last two years, signaling that communities are growing and housing needs are being met. Cotality recently ranked our region as the No. 2 Hottest Real Estate Market in the U.S.
Downtown projects such as the $13 million Huntington Building redevelopment in Youngstown, supported by a $1 million JobsOhio Vibrant Communities grant, show how commercial space, housing and livability can reinforce one another.
Lake to River is keeping the momentum moving forward. Since inception in May 2024, the four-county Lake to River region has attracted 31 economic development projects representing $1.1 billion in capital investment, 1,008 new jobs, and $72 million in new payroll.
Lake to River’s goals are to keep reducing friction, preparing sites, strengthening talent pipelines, and helping communities move from opportunity to execution. We remain committed to equipping businesses in our region with the data, support, and partnerships needed to capitalize on this momentum.