COLUMBUS, Ohio — The Ohio Chamber of Commerce Economic Advisor Council released its third-quarter report, offering a cautiously optimistic outlook on national and state economic trends while warning of persistent uncertainties in areas such as trade policy, inflation and labor markets.
The council, formed by the Ohio Chamber in early 2024, is composed of economists and experts tasked with evaluating key economic indicators affecting the state’s business climate.
According to the report, fears of a near-term recession have eased since the council’s April update. However, members remain concerned about the medium-term trajectory of the economy, citing conflicting signals and unresolved trade policy issues.
The council forecasts the federal funds rate will end 2025 between 3.75% and 4.5%, with most members anticipating one to two interest rate cuts. The probability of a recession remains between 30% and 40%, based on consensus estimates.
In Ohio, real GDP growth is projected at 1% to 1.5%, which continues to trail national averages. The state’s unemployment rate is forecast between 4.5% and 5.5%, higher than the national rate. Inflation, measured by the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, is expected to rise to between 2.7% and 3.5% by the end of the year, driven in part by tariff impacts.
The report also noted that while a recently passed domestic policy bill is expected to provide modest fiscal stimulus, some council members expressed concern about its potential inflationary effects and long-term fiscal implications.
Trade policy remains the council’s top concern, with members warning that uncertainty in this area continues to complicate long-term business planning and investment decisions.
Ohio-specific challenges highlighted in the report include the state’s reliance on tariff-sensitive manufacturing industries, urban-rural disparities in economic performance, a continued mismatch between worker skills and employer needs, and potential labor shortages in agriculture and construction due to immigration policy constraints.
The Economic Advisor Council plans to continue releasing quarterly updates to inform policymakers and the business community.
The Ohio Chamber of Commerce represents thousands of companies statewide and advocates for free enterprise, economic competitiveness and business growth.