By Ted Schmidt
PNC Regional President for Youngstown
The economy is entering 2026 with a mix of steadier footing and slower momentum, a combination that often rewards operators who stay disciplined on fundamentals while keeping enough flexibility to act when conditions improve.
PNC Economics Research notes that the most recent employment data offered a cleaner look at labor conditions, showing modest but stable job growth and an unemployment rate that eased to 4.4%. At the same time, economists described a labor market that may not be improving quickly but appears to be stabilizing, an important distinction for businesses planning hiring, investment and pricing decisions this year.
Looking further out, PNC’s National Economic Outlook projects real GDP growth slowing to 1.7% in 2026, with the unemployment rate peaking at 4.7% and core inflation rising 2.6%, still above the Federal Reserve’s longer-run goal. That’s a “slower but not stalled” environment, where execution and planning tend to matter more than macro tailwinds.
PNC Economics Research’s current view anticipates the Fed holding rates steady through the first half of 2026, with the potential for two 25 basis-point cuts later in the year. For owners, that’s a prompt to run decisions through scenarios: what you can comfortably carry if rates stay higher for longer, and what you would accelerate if borrowing costs drift lower. The goal is not to predict perfectly, it’s to preserve flexibility.
With more clarity forming after a noisy 2025, PNC expects a steadier environment in 2026, and pent-up demand could reenter the market as businesses regain confidence to make postponed decisions. Themes likely to shape the year include agility and innovation, the practical application of AI for productivity gains, and a potential pickup in M&A activity as conditions become more supportive.
COMMITMENT TO THE MAHONING VALLEY
I’m also proud of PNC’s efforts to make the Mahoning Valley a better place to live, work and play. Through employee volunteerism and partnerships with local organizations, we continue to support initiatives that strengthen the region’s long-term vitality.
Examples of our local community support efforts include:
In March, we cut the ribbon with Alta Care Group on the new outdoor learning and play space at the Alta Head Start McCartney Learning Center, made possible by a $75,000 PNC Foundation grant. The nature‑based space features a reading nook, small stage, wooden arch bridge, mud kitchen, musical instruments and more to support children’s physical, social‑emotional and language development as part of PNC Grow Up Great’s focus on outdoor learning.
In November, the PNC Foundation approved a two‑year, $100,000 workforce development grant to the Youngstown/Warren Regional Chamber, bringing our total investment to $150,000 over three years. The funding advances efforts with community partners to remove barriers to employment, such as transportation, childcare and behavioral health, through convenings, advocacy and initiatives like the Assembly for Workforce Solutions steering committee and the Population & Talent Expansion Council.
Also in November, PNC and Operation Warm teamed up to deliver 400 new winter coats to preschoolers at Alta Head Start, supported by a $10,000 PNC Foundation grant and PNC employee volunteers. This will help children stay healthy, warm and ready to learn as temperatures drop.
On behalf of my PNC colleagues, I wish everyone in the Mahoning Valley a healthy and prosperous year. We look forward to supporting you throughout 2026.
