YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio – When average 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dipped below 6% in February for the first time since September 2022, prospective homebuyers started to notice.
But with tariffs and an ongoing geopolitical conflict, rates have increased to between 6% and 6.5%.
Michael Kurish, president and CEO of the Associated School Employees Credit Union, says he believes home buyers are really in a “wait and see” position, while watching the interest rates.
“They’re not going down as fast as maybe they thought they would,” Kurish says. “And I really think there’s a lot of folks that are maybe under the impression that some of the low rates that we had years ago are going to come back. Maybe they don’t realize a 6% rate is a good rate on a home loan.”
Kurish says that historically rates were much higher than 6%, and he believes younger buyers may not realize it.
Todd Donley, senior vice president and regional sales manager at WesBanco, says when rates dropped below 6% for about 45 days, interest in refinancing ticked up a bit. Even when interest rates increased, momentum continued.
“I wouldn’t say it’s really expanding significantly over the last year, but we’re running about 10% I think, across the country, 10% above the activity that we saw prior year,” Donley says.
Plus there are other factors that go into buying a home, aside from the mortgage rates.
“Sometimes you look at a home that needs to have upgrades in order to get it to the level of occupancy or what you’re really looking for,” Kurish says. “So there’s additional expenses that are involved in that.”
Additionally, Kurish points out that there are other expenses involved, including insurance and taxes.
“All the components of home ownership seem to be high and those are the items that are either allowing or not allowing individuals to enter the housing market,” Kurish says.
However, Kurish also notes the cost of home ownership in the Mahoning Valley is lower when compared to other parts of the state or nation.
“You don’t have to go very far to see that the prices are much higher,” Kurish says. “If you get into the Cleveland and Akron markets or the Pittsburgh markets, they’re much higher than we are here.”
Inventory Levels
During the Covid pandemic, houses in the Mahoning Valley saw people lining up for the opportunity to purchase and making bids above asking price. Donley points out the ripple effect of that is unknown until people who paid top dollar sell down the road. But whether those home values are declining depends on where you live.
“Here in the Midwest we don’t see the peaks and valleys as significant on property values as they do in other parts of the country, and that’s a good thing in my opinion,” Donley says.
“If you’re in Florida or if you’re in Texas or you’re in California, you might see 15%, 20% appreciation on a house, but you may turn around and see 15 to 20% depreciation in value. … We don’t typically see those kinds of significant peaks or valleys. More steady as you go.”
Sam Huston, market president for Huntington Bank, agrees.
“Purchase activities seem strong and appear to be less influenced by rates and more influenced by the lack of inventory and inflated home prices in some markets,” he says.
Market Movers
But life changing events push some people to sell, even those with a 3% or 4% interest rate.
“They might be in love with their mortgage rate, but something’s going on in their life that they have to let go,” Donley suggests, adding it could be outgrowing their home or downsizing or moving for a new job.
Kurish points out homes where the owners have passed away and the family is liquidating the asset as another example. And growing families that need more space have no other options, he adds.
“But I think those that have the option would rather stay put and try to modify the home and improve it in some fashion that’s accommodating to what their needs are,” Kurish says.
Huston agrees, noting many are completing renovations or adding onto their existing home instead of giving up the great rate of their original mortgage.
“No one knows the magic number for where interest rates need to be for homeowners to abandon their lower rates and finally consider selling their homes,” Huston says.
Donley believes it may be somewhere closer to 5%, which somehow seems easier to swallow going from a 3%, as opposed to doubling the interest rate at 6%.
“Fifty-two percent of the mortgage holders out there and mortgages out there across the country have a sub-4% interest rate and 70% have a below 5%,” he says. “Even though we’re seeing it fall out, there’s still a significant amount of mortgages in the country that are below 5%.”
Adjustable rate mortgages may be making a comeback in some areas. Prior to 2008, they were very common, but coming out of Covid, even as late as 2024, rates were so low, ARMs were not valuable, Donley continues. Now he says if people can get 1.5% to 2% lower locked in for five to 15 years, they are interested, knowing the rate will eventually increase.
However, if the interest rates become more advantageous, they can look into refinancing, Huston points out.
Others, Donley says, want the stability of a fixed rate. Aside from both ARM and fixed rate products, Donley says WesBanco has mortgage products aimed at low- to moderate-income homeowners and first-time homebuyers.
“There’s still a very large misconception that you need 20% down to buy a house,” Donley says, adding for those who qualify there are multiple programs where someone could pay 5% or even 0% down.
Economist’s View
Ershang Liang, an economist at PNC Bank, says the team of economists at the bank believe the Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates on hold for 2026 and beyond, which could keep the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate above 6% through this year.
Liang says that will continue to be a drag on the local housing market, as it has been for the past two or three years.
“Existing home sales have been trending down over the past two years. Definitely it has come down from their peaks in earlier times of post pandemic recovery,” Liang says, adding economists expect a weak 2026 market.
While locally the housing market is best characterized by low home prices and high affordability, prices have been rising locally over the past two years, she says. But it remains affordable.
According to the National Association of Realtors median home price for the metropolitan area Youngstown regions, a qualified buyer of a single family home putting down 20% had an income of $49,000, which Liang says is less than half the national average.
Liang says she expects existing home sales to trend down in the region because, in part, the total level of local employment never returned to prepandemic peak levels, which it did nationally.
“The size of employed and unemployed, or the supply of labor, remains about 1 to 2% down from early 2020,” Liang says. “That’s tied to the demand for the housing market and it could be that housing demand should likely remain sluggish this year.”
Liang says a shrinking labor force and aging population should also slow home price growth. She sees goods producers, which she says tapered off production in 2024, remaining cautious due to tariffs and the conflict in Iran.
Liang says the Youngstown metropolitan area does not have a housing shortage. According to the National Association of Realtors, she says there’s a sufficient supply in the region. Liang says typically, sufficient supply means a new single permit issued for housing construction for every two new jobs in the area. Northeastern Ohio is not seeing the job growth to necessitate more homes, according to Liang.
Additionally, home ownership rates for those under 35 has decreased from 2020 and 2021, with more young families choosing to rent instead of purchasing a home due to rising prices.
Modern Mortgages
Huston notes young buyers are “very savvy.” Oftentimes they have done their research before they even approach the bank seeking approval. They often come with a list of sophisticated questions and some misconceptions passed down from generations of family members.
“Home financing is very often much more attainable and affordable than people realize,” Huston says.
Huston says AI technology has even allowed the lenders to automate a lot of the processes that were done manually in the past.
Kurish agrees there are more and more things mortgage seekers can do online before they actually need to come to the office to sign.
“Eventually they’re going to have to come in and sign, but we can give some of the preliminary information and give some preapprovals over the telephone to see if a person’s going to quality,” Kurish says.
Donley says WesBanco has the capability of electronically pulling an applicant’s income, employment and assets in the bank with their permission and instead of signing so many sheets of paper to close, he says about 90% of it can be signed electronically.
And depending on the borrower’s credit profile, some do not even need to have an appraisal done on the house, which saves money.
Donley points out the mortgage crisis in 2008 taught banks the importance of not putting people in homes they cannot afford, but there are still a lot of programs out there to help those with good credit.
“We look at it through a lens of really helping these families and in being sure we’re there for them when they need us most,” Donley says. “WesBanco really has got the suite of products that we can feel really, really good about in being a really good community partner.”
Huston says Huntington’s mortgage products are as diverse as its clientele.
“Every borrower has unique needs and circumstances and we are well suited to meet clients’ needs,” he says. “We offer a multitude of first-time homebuyer products, new construction, lot loans, rehab, physician loans, FHA, VA and USDA affordable lending for low-to-moderate income borrowers. We are very proud of the wide variety of products we are able to offer our borrowers.”
