Roundtable Preview: Local Financial Experts Give Glimpse of 2025

YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio – Leaders of local financial institutions are optimistic about 2025 but believe uncertainty may persist surrounding inflation and interest rates.

The Business Journal sat down with leaders of banks and credit unions in late November for a roundtable discussion on what they see impacting the economy, businesses and consumers in 2025. The full transcript of the discussion will be printed in the December issue.

The local financial experts discussed the impact fintech has had on the industry, the future of banking – including consolidations and the role of branches – as well as interest rates and how they affect mortgage rates, housing and the Mahoning Valley economy.

The roundtable participants were Michael Kurish, CEO of the Associated School Employees Credit Union; Christine Blake, CEO of the Cardinal Credit Union; Matt Bellin, senior vice president of Middlefield Bank; John Demmler, CEO of 717 Credit Union; Sandy Carangi, CEO of Mercer County Community Federal Credit Union; Josh Toot, market president at Premier Bank; and Mark Wenick, senior executive vice president at Farmer’s National Bank.

One of the topics discussed was the tariffs that President-elect Donald Trump said he wants to impose.

Bellin said many of his business clients were excited about the results of the election. Many had put projects or expansion on hold and were waiting to see which administration would be in control to determine whether to take out a business loan and proceed.

Bellin suggested that was due, in part, to the Trump tax cuts from 2016, which were scheduled to expire.

“For many of my clients, next year projects are back on the front burner again that maybe had been shelved this year to wait and see, both for interest rates, as well as some potential tax breaks as well,” he said. “So I anticipate a good year in 2025 for business lending.”

Demmler addressed the concerns about tariffs, noting some of the language being used may just be negotiating tactics.

“But, in general, tariffs would increase the cost of goods and services that we all pay, acting as, effectively, a massive sales tax,” Demmler said.

Carangi agreed tariffs could increase the costs of goods, which could lead to more inflation and affect interest rates.

“[Interest rates] might go down a little bit at the beginning of the year, but then as things start to happen, interest rates could stay where they are,” Carangi said.

Toot said he sees treasuries and mortgage rates coming down, which could lead to movement in the real estate market and business lending.

“It’s hard to move from your home when you’re at a 3 to 4% rate and you’re looking at 7% for mortgages to move,” Toot said.

Kurish noted that mortgage rates dropped earlier this year, and the Federal Reserve lowered rates twice, a total of 75 basis points. Kurish said the Fed seems to be increasing the target rate in 2025.

“There’s just so much uncertainty that exists in the market that it’s hard to have that crystal ball to say what’s going to happen,” Kurish said. “Certainly, inflation being lowered is going to help create some stability in home prices.”

Blake said the concerns that need to be addressed include high home prices, which need to come down 10%. Lowered mortgage rates and stable incomes also are essential to help spur the real estate market, she said. She pointed to a 2% increase reported in the applications for mortgages.

“So you are seeing little upticks in an improvement as those rates have come down slightly,” Blake said.

Demmler added to Blake’s point, noting that while housing in this region is more affordable than across the state and nation, it is still unaffordable and unattainable for many.

“There has to be a movement towards lowering the cost of housing and providing financial solutions that can lower the overall payment,” Demmler said, adding one of the steps is increasing the housing supply here, including by adding more modular homes.

Wenick credited Eastgate Regional Council of Governments and the Youngstown/Warren Regional Chamber with taking on the challenge of creating more housing. He said he looks forward to seeing the report due to come out in January that will outline a plan to tackle the problem.

Pictured at top: From left are Michael Kurish, Christine Blake, Josh Toot, Sandy Carangi, Mark Wenick, John Demmler and Matt Bellin.

Copyright 2024 The Business Journal, Youngstown, Ohio.