YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio – Specialists in the energy and automotive sectors say President Donald Trump’s intentions to rescind much of the Biden administration’s climate goals should have little impact on the electrical vehicle market in the long run, insisting that consumers – not incentives – will ultimately determine the pace of EV adoption.
“At the end of the day, if EVs are a better product than internal combustion engines – and I believe they are – then EVs will be the choice of the customer,” said Rick Stockburger, president and CEO of Brite Energy Innovators, an energy incubator based in Warren.
Brite helps early-stage energy companies commercialize their technology to a point where they can compete in the marketplace, Stockburger added. “One of the things that has made Brite stand out nationally is that we’ve always focused on commercial technologies that can compete in the market without incentives,” he said.
The same line of thinking should apply to electric vehicle manufacturers, he said, which must develop a way to reduce costs to remain competitive.
“If those things are going to compete long-term – and I truly believe they will – then we’re going to have to manufacture them at a price that’s affordable,” he said.
Stockburger said he listened closely to the U.S. Senate confirmation hearings of Chris Wright, Trump’s nominee for secretary of energy, and said he was impressed with his answers.
“He said climate change was real,” Stockburger said. “He also said de-carbonization of all industries is important.” An all-around energy strategy that encourages growth in natural gas, solar, wind and electric, for example, makes for sound policy, he added.
“I’m more hopeful that we’re going to reduce carbon and climate change more than I was three months ago,” Stockburger noted. “You need market-based solutions.”
Trump has vowed to roll back what he and his supporters have labeled an electric vehicle “mandate” that eliminated choices for buyers. Instead, the Biden White House issued an executive, nonbinding order in 2021 that targeted a goal of achieving 50% zero emissions among new vehicles by 2030.
To encourage EV adoption, Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, which allowed tax credits of up to $7,500 toward the purchase of a new, qualifying electric vehicle. A second measure, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, allocated $7.5 billion toward the development of an EV charging network to support electric vehicle usage.
Trump announced Jan. 20 that he would freeze all unspent funds directed at developing a national charging network.
While there is no federal mandate, the U.S. EPA has created emission standards that automakers could reach only by manufacturing more electric vehicles, given consumer demand for SUVs and trucks. Trump has vowed to roll back those emission standards.
“If America would buy smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, then you wouldn’t need that much electrification to meet those standards,” said Sam Abuelsamid, vice president of market research for Detroit-based Telemetry Insights. “That’s one part of the puzzle.”
Still, should the Trump administration be successful in reversing incentives for electric vehicle purchases and funding for new charging infrastructure, it could slow the rate of EV adoption among consumers, Abuelsamid said. This would also likely affect EV suppliers and battery manufacturers, such as Ultium Cells LLC, which employs approximately 2,000 at its plant in Lordstown.
“If that happens, the plants that have already been built will likely be scaled back and a lot of people will lose their jobs, including Ultium Cells in Lordstown,” he said.
However, Trump does not have unilateral authority to strike down those incentives, since they were provisions of laws enacted by Congress, Abuelsamid said. The only way to squash those tax credits and other incentives would be to repeal legislation.
That might be more difficult than one would think, despite Republican control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate, Abuelsamid said.
“If you look at where most of that money has been spent so far, most of it is in red [Republican] states – Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky,” Abuelsamid said. Although lawmakers representing these regions may have initially voted against this legislation in 2022, they might be reluctant to repeal these measures since it’s translated into the construction of new factories and jobs within their districts, he added.
“They take credit for all of those jobs they brought to those regions,” Abuelsamid added. “Especially members in the House, who run for re-election every two years.”
Therefore, it’s likely that both laws – the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law – will remain on the books for the foreseeable future, he said.
Still, Abuelsamid believes that EV purchases will increase every year, regardless of incentives. “Manufacturers have been working diligently to reduce the costs of EVs and make them more affordable,” he noted, citing the electric version of the Chevrolet Equinox, which starts at $35,000 and boasts 320 miles of battery range. “If you get people to try one, they usually actually like it better than a gas vehicle.”
Having that option is important, though, said Rob Cochran, president and CEO of Pittsburgh-based #1 Cochran, a multibrand dealership that has recently acquired several Mahoning Valley auto retailers.
“The customer is the one that hasn’t been listened to as much as they need to,” Cochran told The Business Journal at an event last week in Austintown. “The government has been involved and has been attempting to artificially change the growth trajectory. It should be the customer driving the trajectory, not the government.”
For Cochran, it is a simple matter of satisfying the consumer.
“We want to be able to sell whatever our customers want,” he said. “There’s exceptional EVs, and an EV is a great choice for a lot of customers, but not all.”
Cochran said his company would continue to monitor the regulatory environment, the new administration and the impact of any tariff policies. “It’ll be an interesting year, but we’re bullish on it. But we need to be light on our feet.”
Pictured at top: A 2023 Ford Mustang Mach-E charges at an electric vehicle charging station in London, Ohio, on March 8, 2024. (AP Photo | Joshua A. Bickel, File)