NEW YORK – Business executives report lower optimism about the U.S. economy this quarter, while confidence in their own companies’ prospects improved, according to the fourth-quarter AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey.
Executives cited domestic economic conditions and inflation as their top concerns, while tariff-related planning uncertainty eased compared with last quarter.
The AICPA and CIMA survey polls chief executive officers, chief financial officers, controllers and other CPAs in U.S. companies who hold executive and senior management accounting roles. The survey is a forward-looking indicator that tracks hiring and business-related expectations for the next 12 months.
Twenty-eight percent of business executives said they were optimistic about the U.S. economy’s outlook over the next 12 months, down from 34% in the past quarter. Domestic economic conditions (No. 1) and inflation (No. 2) were cited as top concerns, swapping places from last quarter. Domestic political leadership rose to the third spot among concerns, its highest ranking since the second quarter of 2021.
Uncertainty tied to changing tariff schedules eased, with 49% of business executives reporting moderate to significant uncertainty in business planning, down from 58% last quarter.
Among respondents, 3 of 4 said the 43-day federal government shutdown, which ended during the survey period, had no more than a minor impact on operations. Among those reporting impact, the most common effects were softer consumer spending and delays in regulatory approvals.
Even with lower economic optimism, executives were more favorable about their own companies’ outlook than in the third quarter (41% compared with 37%). Slightly more than last quarter said they were expecting to expand their businesses (48% compared with 46%).
“Despite a small decrease in optimism in the economy at large, we’re seeing a mixed picture below that topline figure that underscores some of the volatility companies are experiencing,” said Tom Hood, executive vice president of business engagement and growth at the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, the alliance formed by AICPA and CIMA. “The good news is business executives are feeling better about their own companies’ expected performance, and that’s reflected in small improvements in profit and revenue projections.”
The number of business executives who expect a recession by the end of 2026 dropped 2 percentage points from 54% to 52% – with 17% saying we’re already in one.
The hiring picture remains largely similar to last quarter. A majority of business executives said they have the right number of employees. Some 32 percent said they have too few, a point lower than last quarter. But the number of business executives who said they have too many employees also dropped a point (13% compared with 14%).