NEW YORK – Business executives reported higher optimism about the U.S. economy this quarter, while confidence in their own companies’ prospects also improved, according to the latest AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey. 

Executives continued to cite domestic economic conditions as their top concern, followed by employee and benefits costs and the costs of materials, supplies and equipment. Inflation concerns retracted during the quarter, although the survey concluded before the recent conflict in Iran.

The AICPA and CIMA survey polls chief executive officers, chief financial officers, controllers and other CPAs in U.S. companies who hold executive and senior management accounting roles. It’s is a forward-looking indicator that tracks hiring and business-related expectations for the next 12 months.

Thirty-nine percent of business executives said they were optimistic about the U.S. economy’s outlook over the next 12 months, rebounding from 28% in the past quarter. Domestic economic conditions remained in the top position, while employee and benefits costs and materials/supplies/equipment costs each rose two spots (No. 2 and No. 3), respectively. Inflation, the No. 2 top concern last quarter, slid to the middle of the list (No. 5).

Executives’ outlook for their own companies improved, rising 6 percentage points from 41% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 47% in the first quarter of 2026. Plans for business expansion also increased, with 55% of executives expecting growth this quarter, compared with 48% last quarter.

“Business leaders are feeling a renewed sense of optimism this quarter, both about the U.S. economy and the near‑term prospects for their own organizations. While economic conditions, workforce costs and input prices remain key areas of focus, we’re encouraged to see inflation pressures easing earlier in the quarter,” said Tom Hood, executive vice president of business engagement and growth at the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, the alliance formed by AICPA and CIMA. “That said, we’re mindful that recent geopolitical developments could affect inflation trends, and we’re watching those dynamics closely. Even with this uncertainty, the steady rise in company outlooks and expansion plans shows that executives are positioning their businesses for growth.”

Other key findings of the survey include:

  • The number of business executives who expect a recession by the end of 2026 decreased heavily from 52% to 36%.
  • The overall hiring picture remains largely similar to the past quarter – 56% (53% in the fourth quarter of 2025) of business executives saying they have the right number of employees and 31% (32% in the fourth quarter of 2025) noting too few.
  • According to business executives, entry-level hiring also remained level at 57%, showing no change. Only 19% noted an increase in entry-level hiring for the quarter, with business growth and the need for AI skills as the primary drivers.
  • Profit and revenue growth both rebounded slightly. Projected revenue growth for the next 12 months is now expected to be 2.9% (up from 2% in the fourth quarter of 2025), and profit expectations are now projected to be at 1.6% this quarter (up from 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025).