SEATTLE – At the start of 2026, the consensus was nearly unanimous: CD rates were heading down. Major forecasts predicted one to three additional Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, and savers were widely urged to lock in yields before the window closed.
Eight months later, that forecast hasn’t held up – and new data from CD Valet, a digital marketplace tracking CDs from more than 4,600 banks and credit unions nationwide, shows why.
According to CD Valet, CD rates started the year in February with a nationwide average of 3.03% APY across all maturities and with the top 1 percent of CD rates at 4.06% APY. Fast forward to August, the average rate has grown by 0.53% APY to 3.56% APY across all maturities, with the top 1 percent of rates now sitting at 4.25% APY.
As of Aug. 19, the CD yield curve is relatively flat, with the top 1 percent of rates for six-, 12- and 24-month terms all sitting at 4.20% and the top 1 percent for 60-month CDs at 4.25%. These terms have all seen near similar growth rates in their respective averages, with 24- and 36-month CD rates increasing by just over 0.60% APY and 48- and 60-month CD rates having the highest growth at or slightly above 0.70% APY.
“This is hardly the ‘rates are headed south’ message we heard at the start of the year,” said John Blizzard, founder of CD Valet, adding that the flattened yield curve is allowing savers the flexibility to choose the term that best fits their needs without sacrificing the best rates offered.
Why the Forecasts Missed
Most CD rate predictions lean heavily on the expected path of the federal funds rate. But CD Valet’s data suggests that framework misses a second, less-discussed force: what individual banks and credit unions need from their deposit base at any given moment, independent of what the Fed does next.
“CDs aren’t priced off a single dial in Washington, D.C.,” Blizzard said. “Every institution on our platform is also asking its own question – do we need more deposits on the books right now, and how much are we willing to pay for them? A bank that’s flush with deposits and light on loan demand can let CD rates drift down even if the Fed hasn’t moved. A bank that needs to shore up its funding base – because loan growth picked up, deposits walked out the door to a competitor or a regulator wants a stronger liquidity position – will hold or even raise its CD rates regardless of the broader rate outlook.”
This dynamic helps explain why CD Valet’s tracked rate curve has stayed resilient even as the macro narrative swung from “rates are falling” to renewed talk of a possible hike ahead of the Fed’s next meeting. As of Aug. 19, the CME FedWatch Tool gives a nearly 37 percent probability for a rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee’s Sept. 16 gathering.
“The best step a saver can take is to always shop and compare, and never just automatically accept the rate your primary bank or credit union is offering,” Blizzard said. “It’s also critical to take into account term as well as rate, as right now we are seeing financial institutions offering a 4.30% APY on CDs across almost the entire maturity spectrum – from three-month terms all the way out to 84-month (seven-year) terms.”
What This Means for Savers
For everyday savers, the practical takeaway is less about timing the Fed and more about timing individual institutions. CD Valet’s marketplace model – aggregating live rates across banks and credit unions rather than relying on a single institution’s posted rate – is designed around exactly this reality: The best rate on any given week may come from a bank making a funding push, not necessarily the bank with the biggest brand name.
In the past 30 days, nearly 750 financial institutions across the country have updated their CD rates, with more than three-quarters of them increasing by an average of 34 basis points. Of these, 63 percent of these rate increases were from credit unions, and 37 percent came from banks.