YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio – A sluggish economy has temporarily put the brakes on the transportation sector over the past year as the industry shakes off a slower-than-normal winter, regional managers and executives say.
There are nevertheless glimmers that business could rebound by the middle of 2025, evidenced by an increase in inquiries related to long-term leases, better sales prospects, and strengthening client orders, these specialists add.
“Winter was a little harsher than what we’ve seen over the last three years,” says Matt Svancara, COO of Aim Transportation Solutions’ leasing division. “Rental utilization this time of year is usually low, but it’s a little lower across the entire industry.”
Aim, which is headquartered in Girard, is the largest privately owned truck leasing company in the country. The company also operates an integrated logistics division, which supplies clients with tractor trucks and drivers; a commercial rentals division; maintenance programs; a brokerage business; and a used truck business.
Svancara says it’s not unusual for the short-term rental market to experience a drop during the colder months. Yet the real measure of the market and the economy, he emphasizes, is activity among those considering long-term leases for over-the-road cabs.
“We have seen an increase in inquiries for long-term leases,” Svancara says. These are extended-term contracts that are locked in for six or seven years, the COO says. Typically, when interest in longer term contracts rises, it means that companies are planning out the rest of the year with more confidence.
Svancara says this activity stretches across the industries and clients Aim serves. While some clients in specific industries experience downturns, others the company serves could have a banner year, thereby offsetting any loss of business. “We serve customers in manufacturing – steel and aluminum, for example – and food distribution, which is a big one. We have a lot of refrigerator equipment,” he says. “It’s very diversified and a nice portfolio.”
The boost in longer term contracts could be attributed to companies considering leasing as a more cost-efficient alternative to outright purchases when it comes to replenishing their fleets, Svancara says. A rise in business could also be the result of clients looking to enter into lease agreements before new regulations take effect in 2027, he adds. “Theoretically, we’d start to see this happen toward the end of this year and the beginning of next year,” he says. “We see a lot of optimism this year.”
Moreover, sales of used trucks are on the rise after more than a year of sluggish results, Svancara says. “That segment was busy a few years ago,” he says. “It’s down now, but it’s showing signs of improvement.” This, he attributes to thinning inventories and a spike in demand from those who prefer newer used trucks.
Aim’s maintenance division is also keeping busy, Svancara says. The company provides maintenance services for client trucks at its garage locations, or by dispatching technicians to a customer’s site, should the job require work on multiple fleet vehicles. Aim manages a fleet of 11,000 trucks across Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, New York, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Virginia and West Virginia.
If there is one wild card across the industry, Svancara says, it’s the direction and fate of electrification. “There’s uncertainty about the EV industry.”
Svancara says EV over-the-road cabs are at present expensive and require a hefty charge for them to operate. An EV sleeper cab, he emphasizes, uses enough electricity on a single charge to power 32 homes. Plus, the regulatory environment could change in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision last year that diminished the power of federal agencies to interpret rules, which could impact environmental standards.
The Trump administration has pledged to peel back many of these regulations, and it is unclear what effect that could have in the EV market, Svancara says.
Still Stalled
Others believe the transportation market has yet to significantly rebound, pointing to several companies that have either gone out of business or consolidated with larger interests.
“There are glimpses of it starting to pick up, but it’s not taking off like gangbusters,” observes Dave Eaborn, vice president of operations for Pittsburgh-based Eaborn Trucking. “It’s still pretty slow.”
Eaborn hauls for customers who produce specialty steel and metals used mostly in the aerospace industry. “We’ve been in business 84 years,” he says, transporting specialty and high-end metals across western Pennsylvania through eastern Ohio and West Virginia.
Eaborn says that he’s concerned over the number of transportation companies within his service area that have gone out of business. “We’re seeing it left and right,” he says. “Some are consolidating while others are just going out of business.”
Fuel prices, he observes, are rising once again, while apportioned license plate fees in Pennsylvania have also increased, impacting the bottom line on many trucking firms. “Most Pennsylvania plates will expire May 31,” he says. “It will be interesting to see how many companies are getting plates.”
Apportioned license plates apply to those registered vehicles that travel in multiple jurisdictions, Eaborn says. They are usually in force for one year – between June 1 and May 31 – before they must be renewed. Eaborn runs 11 trucks – mostly flatbeds. “I have the potential for more, but we’ve downsized,” he adds. “I just don’t think the economy is picking up.”
Still, Eaborn says his clients have reported that they are receiving more calls regarding pricing and availability. That’s a good sign for his customers and his business over the near term. “There’s a little bit of hope,” he says. “It could be a combination of less competition in the field and more orders out there, so we’re hoping business starts turning in the other direction. There are signs the economy is improving.”
Add Tariffs to Mix
There are factors that could still confound this recovery, industry trade groups say, especially the 25% tariffs that the Trump administration imposed against Mexico and Canada.
“As the trucking industry recovers from a years-long freight recession marked by low freight volumes, depressed rates, and rising operational costs, we are concerned that tariffs could decrease freight volumes and increase costs for motor carriers at a time when the industry is just beginning to recover,” American Trucking Associations CEO Christ Spear said in early February. “Trucks move 85% of goods that cross our southern border and 67% of goods that cross our northern border, supporting hundreds of thousands of trucking jobs in the U.S.”
A 25% tariff on Mexico, the CEO noted, could drive the price of a new tractor up by $35,000, which could be cost-prohibitive, especially for smaller carriers.
Meanwhile, dealerships are already contending with stagnant sales, says Vincent Cerni, vice president of fleet sales for Ascendance Truck Centers, which operates a store in Austintown.
“Sales are flat at the moment – both new and used,” Cerni says. Were this four years ago, the most significant impediment in the market was a supply chain that was choked off because of the COVID-19 pandemic. These supply chains, however, are now unencumbered and have returned to their free-flowing business, he says.
What has changed is demand, Cerni says. “Supply isn’t the issue anymore. Demand is,” he says. “It’s not a growth market right now.”
Ascendance is a retailer of truck brands such as International, Isuzu and Dennis Eagle with 37 locations in nine states. It also sells trailer brands. The Austintown retail operation does not carry Isuzu, Cerni says.
While overall demand is down, Cerni says that International’s HX line is still performing well. These trucks are not just used for over-the-road hauling, but for other commercial purposes such as cement mixers, garbage trucks, roll-off trucks, and dump trucks, he says. “Drivers really like it,” he says.
As for tariffs, Cerni says he’s unsure what impact they would have on the average price of a tractor.
“There’s just a lot of speculation right now,” he says.
Editor’s Note: This story has been updated from its original print version to reflect the 25% tariffs that the Trump administration imposed against Mexico and Canada on March 4.
Pictured at top: Matt Svancara, chief operating officer of the leasing division of Aim Transportation Solutions, says the harsh winter has impacted rentals.