YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio – Employment in the Youngstown-Warren metropolitan statistical area is projected to contract at an annual rate of 1.76% over the next six months, according to the April 2025 Leading Indicators report from the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services.
That figure represents one of the steepest predicted declines among Ohio’s eight largest MSAs, second only to the Cincinnati region, which is forecast to decline at an annualized rate of 1.77%. By comparison, statewide employment is projected to decrease by 1.63% over the same period.
Other major MSAs are also expected to experience job losses, with forecasted declines ranging from 0.18% in Toledo to 1.23% in Akron, 1.02% in Columbus, and 1.09% in Cleveland. Only Toledo is projected to experience a comparatively modest contraction.
In the Youngstown-Warren area, seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment reached 168,900 in April, reflecting a 0.4% increase from March and a 1.2% increase from April 2024. However, leading indicators suggest this upward momentum may not continue through the remainder of the year.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in the region surged 56.2% from the previous month to 1,445 in April and were up 74% from one year ago. Meanwhile, housing permit valuations dropped to $6.4 million, marking an 8.6% decline from March and a 15.8% drop year-over-year.
Statewide, nonfarm employment stood at 5.7 million in April, up 0.2% from March and 1.0% from the year before. However, initial claims for unemployment increased 2.2% month-over-month and 20.4% compared with April 2024, signaling potential weakening in the labor market.
Despite short-term employment gains in most MSAs, the state’s leading indicators model – which incorporates metrics such as U.S. industrial production, unemployment claims, housing valuations, manufacturing hours, and national job opening rates – forecasts a cooling trend for Ohio’s job market through the fall.
The Ohio Leading Indicators are produced monthly by the Bureau of Labor Market Information and are designed to anticipate employment changes at the state and metropolitan levels.